U.S. Treasuries strengthened on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered its third straight 25bps rate cut, easing concerns that policymakers were preparing to pause. Traders maintained expectations for two additional cuts in 2026, despite the Fed’s projections signalling only one.
Short-End Leads Rally
Yields fell across the curve:
2-year yield dropped almost 8bps to 3.54% — its biggest one-day drop in two months
Longer-dated yields also retreated from multi-month highs
Treasuries extended gains after Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted concerns over weaker hiring.
Bond managers described the move as a relief rally, noting fears of a more hawkish message did not materialize.
Fed Cuts, But Divisions Deepen
Two officials preferred no cut
One supported a larger 50bps reduction
Powell said the Fed is now “well positioned” to wait for clearer signals on jobs and inflation, while expecting the inflation impact from higher U.S. tariffs to fade.
Markets Price Next Cuts for June and Q4
Traders are fully pricing:
One cut in June 2026
Another by Q4 2026
The U.S. dollar touched its lowest level since October, while stocks gained after Powell praised the economy’s resilience.
Powell noted that payroll growth may be overstated, boosting short-end demand as traders reassessed the true condition of the labor market.
Fed to Resume Treasury Bill Purchases
Next Key Data: Jobs and CPI
The focus now shifts to:
November employment report (delayed)
Last month’s CPI reading
Analysts say Powell’s tone suggests the bias remains toward easing, with data determining whether the Fed cuts again as early as January.
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