Quick Take Big Tech’s 2026 capital spending plans have blown past expectations , sparking a sharp market reaction. Investors still believe in AI — but they now want clear proof of returns , not just long-term promises. The CapEx Shock Across recent earnings, mega-cap tech companies pushed 2026 CapEx from “already massive” to “historically extreme” : Meta Platforms : US$115–135B vs US$110B consensus Stock jumped ~10% initially, but gains faded → investors want evidence, not AI rhetoric Microsoft : US$140–150B vs US$109B consensus Stock fell ~10% → ROI timing now under scrutiny Alphabet : US$175–185B vs US$115B consensus Shares slipped as markets adjusted to a more capital-intensive Google Amazon : ~US$200B vs US$146B consensus Stock dropped ~11% after-hours on cash flow concerns What Investors Are Really Worried About This is no longer about believing in AI — it’s about financial optics and timing . Key Market Fears CapEx is rising fa...
Quick Summary
Surplus liquidity in China is flooding into metals markets, pushing gold, copper and silver to record highs
Money supply is growing far faster than the real economy, reflecting weak consumption and investment
Speculation, not physical demand, is driving much of the rally
Gold stands out as a cultural and financial safe haven for Chinese households
What’s Driving the Metals Surge
With easy money and shrinking investment options, Chinese capital is pouring into commodities.
Key forces at play:
Ample liquidity as the People’s Bank of China continues to support growth
M2 money supply grew 8.5% YoY, far outpacing nominal GDP growth of just 3.9%
Property, equities, and deposits offer unattractive returns
Result: Speculative trading explodes in metals futures
Trading volumes in silver, copper, aluminum, nickel and tin on Chinese exchanges have surged to record levels.
A Disconnect From the Real Economy
Despite soaring prices:
Household consumption remains weak
Bank lending hit its lowest growth since 2018
Fixed-asset investment contracted for the first time on record
Factories are cutting metal purchases to avoid higher costs
Reality check: Futures markets are running ahead of real-world demand.
Why Policymakers Are in a Bind
China faces rising pressure to stimulate:
Calls are growing for rate cuts or reserve requirement reductions
But authorities risk inflating asset bubbles, especially in commodities
While higher commodity prices could help reflate the economy, current conditions — deflation, overcapacity, weak demand — don’t justify the rally.
Why Gold Is Different
Gold’s rise is especially powerful in China because it’s more than just an asset.
According to strategists:
Gold is a cultural store of value, not just a hedge
Onshore gold-linked financial products more than doubled to over 300 products by end-2025
Their total value jumped more than eightfold to 243 billion yuan
With:
Real estate viewed as loss-making
Equity markets constrained by state intervention
Deposit rates unattractive
Gold and silver have become rare outlets for returns.
Speculation With a Long-Term Story
Investors are also leaning on broader themes:
Currency debasement → precious metals
Energy transition → lithium, copper
AI demand → tin, specialty metals
Tight global supply in copper and aluminum is adding fuel to the fire.
Bottom Line
China’s metals rally is a symptom of excess liquidity, not economic strength.
Until consumption and investment recover, capital is likely to keep circling financial assets instead of flowing into the real economy — with metals remaining a prime beneficiary.
Key Takeaways
Liquidity is chasing returns, not growth
Metals prices are driven by speculation, not demand
Gold’s cultural role amplifies China’s buying
Policy easing risks inflating asset bubbles
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