Skip to main content

Featured Post

Market Daily Report: Bursa Malaysia Erases Early Gains To End Lower On Profit-Taking

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 4 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia erased early gains to end lower today as profit-taking emerged following recent gains.  At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) eased 5.44 points, or 0.31 per cent, to 1,742.82 from yesterday’s close of 1,748.26.  The market bellwether opened 1.84 points lower at 1,746.42, and subsequently hit an intraday high of 1,751.22 in early trade before slipping to its day’s low of 1,740.49 during the mid-afternoon session. In the broader market, losers outpaced gainers 602 to 462, with 558 counters unchanged, 1,013 counters untraded and six suspended. Turnover declined to 2.59 billion shares valued at RM2.86 billion from yesterday's 3.25 billion shares valued at RM3.34 billion.

‘SaaSpocalypse’: Traders Flee Software Stocks as AI Fears Trigger Capitulation

Summary

Software stocks are facing panic-level selling as investors fear AI will erode pricing power, margins and competitive moats. Even industry giants like Microsoft are not spared, pushing the sector into its worst selloff since the 2008 crisis. While valuations now look cheap and technicals signal oversold conditions, investors remain unsure where the bottom is.

What’s Driving the Selloff

  • AI disruption fears are accelerating, with new tools from Anthropic and Alphabet raising concerns that software products can be replicated or replaced

  • Traders describe the market as “get me out” selling, with little regard for valuation

  • The S&P North American Software Index fell 15% in January, its worst monthly drop since October 2008

  • Microsoft’s 10% plunge last week showed that even the strongest platforms are vulnerable

Earnings Are No Longer Enough

  • Only 71% of software firms beat revenue estimates, compared with 85% across tech

  • All software firms beat earnings, but stocks still fell

  • Investors are focusing on:

    • Slowing cloud growth

    • Rising AI spending

    • Uncertain long-term returns

AI = Wider Outcomes, Lower Confidence

According to analysts:

  • AI brings more competition and pricing pressure

  • Software moats are shrinking

  • Growth outcomes are harder to forecast, making valuations unstable

“The range of outcomes has widened — it’s harder to see what’s cheap.”

Downgrades & Capitulation

  • Adobe, Freshworks, and Vertex were downgraded on concerns over:

    • Seat compression

    • ‘Vibe coding’

    • Multiple ceilings

  • Traders say no one knows the ‘hold-your-nose’ level yet

Is This a Buying Opportunity?

Some investors think so:

  • Microsoft now trades below 24x earnings, the cheapest in ~3 years

  • Sector-wide RSI signals oversold, the most since 2018

  • Select funds are buying on weakness, betting on long-term AI winners

But most agree:

  • A bounce may happen

  • A full recovery will take time

  • The key challenge is separating AI winners from losers

Big Picture Takeaway

The software sector is undergoing a violent reset, driven by fears that AI could commoditise large parts of SaaS. While valuations and technicals suggest oversold conditions, conviction is still missing. For now, fear dominates — but history suggests capitulation often precedes opportunity.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

特朗普考虑保罗·阿特金斯接任SEC主席,或推动加密货币监管转型

据彭博社报道,美国候任总统唐纳德·特朗普正在考虑由 保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins)接替即将卸任的证券交易委员会(SEC)主席 加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler)。阿特金斯以其支持数字资产的立场闻名,这一任命可能为SEC的加密货币监管政策带来重大转变。 事件概况 阿特金斯的背景 : 阿特金斯曾在乔治·W·布什政府期间担任SEC专员。他一直推动制定明确且平衡的加密货币法规,力求为金融科技创新提供支持。 行业经验 : 离开SEC后,阿特金斯领导了 Patomak Global Partners ,一家为主要金融公司提供咨询的机构。他主张简化监管流程以鼓励创新,同时确保市场完整性。 其他候选人 : 马克·乌耶达 (Mark Uyeda):现任SEC专员 希斯·塔伯特 (Heath Tarbert):前商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)主席 罗伯特·斯特宾斯 (Robert Stebbins):Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP合伙人 特朗普的亲加密货币立场 特朗普承诺终结根斯勒领导下的SEC“反加密货币运动”。根斯勒的任期因FTX崩盘等丑闻后的强力执法而备受争议,被批评为给行业带来了不确定性。 阿特金斯的潜在任命与特朗普的目标一致,即在保障市场完整性的同时,通过更加友好的监管政策推动数字资产的发展。 接下来会发生什么? SEC主席的任命预计将在未来几天内敲定。如果阿特金斯接任,这将表明SEC将采取更注重创新的监管方式,为加密货币行业带来更大的确定性和发展空间。

Capital A 股价下跌,因外汇驱动的第三季度业绩低于预期

Capital A Bhd 在周五早盘交易中股价下跌7%,至1.01令吉,市值降至46亿令吉。这是由于其2024财年第三季度业绩未达到大多数分析师预期,尽管受益于外汇收益提振。 2024财年第三季度亮点: 核心税后及少数股东权益后亏损 (Latmi):  1.434亿令吉,令2024财年前9个月的税后亏损达到1.195亿令吉。 业绩未达  香港联昌投资银行(HLIB)预计的7.549亿令吉的税后净利(Patmi),但与市场普遍预测的4.59亿令吉税后净利一致。 剔除例外项目 (EIs):  共计12亿令吉,主要由于15亿令吉的外汇收益,但被递延税务损失部分抵销。 环比表现: 核心Latmi从上一季度的5,760万令吉恶化至1.434亿令吉,主要受以下因素影响: 季节性收益率疲弱; 成本增加; ADE MRO(维修、保养及翻修)业务因6个新机库的启动成本造成亏损。 未来展望: 预计2024财年第四季度表现将有所改善,得益于: 更高的机队容量; 季节性需求和收益率的改善; 喷气燃料价格下降及美元贬值; 来自新ADE机库的运营贡献。 待决事项: 航空业务出售:  正等待法院批准出售给亚航长途(AirAsia X Bhd, KL:AAX),预计在2025财年第一季度完成。 PN17状态:  出售后仍维持,预计在2025财年上半年完成相关解决方案。 联昌投资银行(HLIB)建议: 维持“买入”评级,目标价为1.68令吉,估值基于航空业务为68亿令吉,非航空业务为21.5亿令吉。 尽管短期面临挑战,Capital A 的长期增长前景依然受到更强的季节性表现和战略举措的支持。

Market Daily Report: Bursa Malaysia Ends At Two-month High On Positive Sentiment

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 12 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia’s key index closed higher today on bargain hunting, in line with positive investor sentiment across regional markets, consolidating at its highest level in more than two months — a level last seen on Oct 2, 2025. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) rose 12.42 points, or 0.76 per cent, to 1,637.81, compared with Thursday’s close of 1,625.39. The benchmark index opened 2.83 points lower at 1,622.56, thereafter edged down to an early low of 1,622.03, before staging an uptrend to an intraday high of 1,640.36 in late trading. Market breadth was positive, with gainers trouncing decliners at 743 versus 387. Another 530 counters were unchanged, 1,108 untraded, and 16 suspended. Turnover increased to 3.09 billion units worth RM2.46 billion from 2.99 billion units worth RM2.35 billion on Thursday. Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd vice-president of equity research Thong Pak Leng said the FBM KLCI ended higher on continued...