Simple Summary
AMD shares have more than doubled over the past 12 months
Q4 earnings are expected to show strong profit and revenue growth
Technical indicators remain bullish, but expectations are mixed
Earnings reaction is the key near-term risk
What’s Driving the Story
High-end chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices has surged 100%+ year-on-year, beating the S&P 500 and hitting an all-time high in October. With Q4 earnings due after the bell, investors are now focused on whether results can justify the rally.
Earnings Expectations (Q4)
Adjusted EPS: US$1.32 (≈ +21% YoY)
Revenue: ~US$9.7B (≈ +26% YoY)
What stands out is analyst uncertainty:
18 analysts raised estimates
16 cut forecasts
Only 3 stayed unchanged
Takeaway: Expectations are high, but conviction is split.
What the Chart Is Saying
Despite volatility since October, AMD’s chart still leans bullish:
Shares reclaimed the 21-day EMA and 50-day SMA
A “mini golden cross” formed, a medium-term bullish signal
RSI is strong but not overbought
MACD remains firmly positive
Technicians see a potential cup-with-handle pattern, with the prior high near US$267 acting as a key level to watch.
Key point: Momentum is positive, but earnings will decide the next leg.
Risks to Watch
Crowded positioning after a massive run-up
Any disappointment on guidance, not just headline numbers
Sector volatility, especially after sharp moves in other AI and chip stocks
Bottom Line
Key Takeaways
AMD +100% YoY puts pressure on earnings delivery
Technical signals remain bullish
Analyst expectations are unusually split
Volatility likely around results

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