Australia's millennial households, those aged 29 to 43, have seen the steepest decline in real average disposable incomes over the past two years, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc, leading to a downgrade in economic growth estimates for the country.
Real incomes for millennial households have dropped by 9.4% during this period, marking the largest decline among any age group, Goldman estimates. Inflation, higher taxes, and rising interest rates have disproportionately impacted this cohort, which tends to spend heavily on discretionary items, said economist William Nixon in a note to clients on Friday.
Nixon pointed out that younger and middle-aged households face major financial headwinds, compounding the effects of inflation that have affected all age groups. This decline in income is expected to result in a more gradual recovery in consumption than previously estimated, with the government's recent tax cuts having a limited impact.
Goldman has revised its aggregate consumption growth forecast for Australia to 0.9% in 2024 (down from 1.1%) and 1.5% in 2025 (down from 2.2%), both of which are below the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) estimates of 1.5% and 2.8%, respectively.
Goldman also downgraded its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 to 2.0%, from 2.3%, falling short of the RBA's forecast of 2.5%. However, the bank left its 2024 GDP forecast unchanged at 1.2%, noting that firm government spending could help offset weaker household consumption in the near term.
Nixon highlighted that the RBA may face pressure to shift its policies in the coming months amid subdued consumer spending, slower wage growth, and rising unemployment. The RBA is expected to keep interest rates at a 12-year high of 4.35% at its upcoming meeting on Sept 23-24, maintaining its hawkish stance.
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