OPEC has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025, marking its fourth consecutive cut due to weakness in China and India. The producer group, along with OPEC+ allies like Russia, had delayed plans to increase output, given current market conditions and falling oil prices.
In its latest report, OPEC projects world oil demand will rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month’s estimate of 1.93 million bpd. This reduction largely reflects weaker demand in China, with OPEC cutting its forecast for Chinese demand growth to 450,000 bpd due to declines in diesel use, amid slowing construction and manufacturing activity and an increase in LNG-fueled trucks.
For 2025, OPEC trimmed the global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd. Brent crude prices saw a dip after the report’s release, trading below $73 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to update its significantly lower demand forecast of 860,000 bpd on Thursday.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ output has risen, with October’s total reaching 40.34 million bpd, up 215,000 bpd from September, as Libyan production rebounded. OPEC also noted that Russia and Kazakhstan were among the countries producing above their quotas.
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