Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as concerns grew over China’s latest economic stimulus package and a potential oversupply outlook, along with the strengthening US dollar. Brent crude futures were down by 0.2% to $71.66 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.3% to $67.84 per barrel.
China’s recently announced 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt package aimed at alleviating local government financing pressures was seen by analysts as insufficient to spur growth in the world’s largest oil importer. Concerns about Chinese demand were heightened after recent data revealed low consumer inflation in October and continued declines in factory prices.
Market focus now shifts to monthly oil market reports from OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Any further downward revisions in demand forecasts, particularly from OPEC, could further pressure oil prices. OPEC’s report, set for release later on Tuesday, is expected to show updated demand projections for the upcoming year.
Analysts suggest that OPEC+ may have to delay its planned rollback of production cuts to avoid exacerbating an oversupply. Vivek Dhar, an analyst with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, warned that if OPEC+ shifts focus to defending market share over maintaining higher prices, it could lead to a sharp fall in oil prices.
Additionally, a stronger US dollar—currently near a four-month high—is further weighing on oil prices by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign buyers. This comes as investors brace for potential signs of continued high US interest rates, with the upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve speakers expected to provide more guidance on the economic outlook.
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