India’s inflation surged to a 14-month high of 6.21% in October, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target ceiling, which likely cements the case for maintaining current interest rates.
The consumer price index saw a significant increase from 5.49% in September, driven by a steep rise in food prices, which climbed 10.87% year-on-year, with vegetable prices spiking 42.18%. Excluding food and fuel, the core inflation measure also ticked up to 3.74%.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has expressed concerns over “upside risks to inflation” stemming from global commodity prices and geopolitical conflicts. He emphasized that any immediate rate cuts could be “very risky,” and the central bank remains committed to a neutral stance until inflation approaches its 4% target sustainably.
The recent inflation figures also cast doubt on potential rate cuts at the RBI’s upcoming December policy meeting. Economists, including Sakshi Gupta from HDFC Bank, suggest that rate easing may be delayed until February or later, given rising uncertainties on the global front, including the recent US election of Donald Trump.
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