KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 5 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia closed lower on Friday amid mixed regional market performance as investors turned cautious over a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and upcoming US economic data that may influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision next week. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) pared most earlier losses to settle 4.55 points easier, or 0.28 per cent, to 1,616.52 from Thursday’s close of 1,621.07. The benchmark index, which opened 0.37 of-a-point lower at 1,620.70, moved between 1,609.67 and 1,621.25 throughout the day. The broader market was negative, with decliners outpacing advancers 604 to 439. A total of 550 counters were unchanged, 1,151 untraded, and 18 suspended. Turnover declined to 3.17 billion units worth RM2.24 billion from 4.48 billion units worth RM2.75 billion yesterday. Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd vice-presiden...
For weeks, the crypto market has felt broken.
October 10 delivered the largest liquidation event in crypto history. Bitcoin plunged, ETH and altcoins fell even harder, and every attempted rebound since has faded instantly. Many blamed President Donald Trump’s 100% China tariffs, macro jitters, or excessive leverage. Those factors triggered the crash — but they don’t explain why the market remains stuck.
The missing piece was a quiet MSCI announcement released on the same day — a document targeting the structures behind one of crypto’s biggest buyer groups: Digital Asset Treasury companies (DATs) such as MicroStrategy (now Strategy).
That announcement may have revealed a structural shock that could hit crypto again in 2026.
What Are DATs — And Why They Matter?
DATs are publicly listed companies that raise capital to buy bitcoin or other digital assets. They became one of the two biggest structural buyers in this cycle, alongside spot ETFs.
DATs operate on a powerful flywheel:
Grow big enough → enter MSCI indexes
Index funds are forced to buy their stock
Stock price and market cap rise
DAT issues more shares/debt → buys more BTC
Increased holdings boost market cap → bigger index weight
More passive buying → cycle repeats
This mechanism helped push billions into BTC — until Oct 10.
What MSCI Announced on Oct 10
MSCI released a consultation proposing that DATs be reclassified as fund-like vehicles, not operating companies.
If digital assets exceed 50% of total assets, the company could be excluded from MSCI’s equity indexes starting February 2026.
JPMorgan estimates that a single exclusion could trigger US$2.8 billion in passive outflows — potentially US$8.8 billionif other index providers follow.
This would break the DAT flywheel:
Forced selling from index trackers
No new passive inflows
Lower ability to raise capital to buy BTC
Weaker structural demand for bitcoin
Tariffs may have started the crash — the MSCI news explains why the bounce died instantly.
Why Oct 10 Became a Flashpoint
1. Macro shock:
Trump announced sweeping China tariffs and export controls → global markets plunged.
2. Crypto liquidation cascade:
More than US$19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out — the largest liquidation ever.
3. MSCI’s document:
A structural bombshell that threatened billions in forced outflows and removed one of crypto’s biggest buyers.
Together, these forces turned a one-day crash into a multiweek malaise.
Why Crypto Still Can’t Bounce
Three forces now keep the market pinned down:
1. Macro headwinds
Rate fears, trade-war risks, and broader risk-off tone keep TradFi cautious.
2. Buyer exhaustion
Retail investors were blown out; ETF flows flipped from inflows to outflows.
3. DAT overhang
Every analyst now flags MSCI’s Jan 15, 2026 decision as a major risk.
Billions in possible forced selling remain on the horizon.
Result:
Every rally runs into a wall of supply, turning into intraday pops rather than real momentum.
Two Paths Ahead: Jan 15, 2026 Is Decision Day
Scenario 1: Negative outcome — DATs excluded
Forced selling into February index rebalances
Pre-positioning dumps by active managers
Dampened BTC demand as DAT fundraising dries up
Crypto sentiment weakens further
This wouldn’t kill the market — but it removes an important structural buyer.
Scenario 2: Positive outcome — MSCI softens stance
Overhang disappears
DATs remain eligible for index inclusion
BTC structural demand stabilizes
Potential setup for a powerful relief rally
Either way, MSCI has turned a niche microstructure issue into a macro-level catalyst.
What Crypto Investors Should Learn
The crash wasn’t “just crypto” — it was macro + leverage + structural change.
Index rules, ETF flows, and tariff policy now drive crypto as much as on-chain metrics.
From now until mid-January, every move in BTC and DAT stocks trades under the shadow of MSCI’s decision.
The Bigger Picture: The Future of DATs and DACs
If MSCI rules against DATs, the model won’t die — it will change.
Instead of relying on index-driven leverage loops, DATs could evolve into Digital Asset Companies (DACs): listed entities that build products, services, and real utility around the assets they hold.
Think of a modern, publicly traded version of Consensys for Bitcoin/Ethereum.
The October 10 crash signaled that:
The macro backdrop still matters
Crypto’s structural buyers aren’t invincible
The “number go up” machine may be getting rewired
This wasn’t a random crash — it was a preview of how deeply crypto now intersects with TradFi.
Comments
Post a Comment