Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is closely monitoring financial markets as the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) hovers near 2%, a level last seen almost two decades ago.
“We are monitoring market trends very closely,” Katayama told reporters on Tuesday, adding that the government would manage JGB issuance “appropriately through close communication with the market.” She declined to comment on whether yields at 2% were a concern.
Japan’s benchmark yield reached its highest level since 2007 on Monday amid growing worries about the country’s fiscal trajectory and expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue raising interest rates.
Fiscal Concerns Intensify
Investor unease has been heightened by the government’s decision to pull back from its long-standing goal of balancing the budget after debt servicing. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s latest economic package — the largest since pandemic-era stimulus — includes ¥11.7 trillion (US$75 billion) in new bond issuance.
Despite the fresh spending, Takaichi kept total bond issuance for the fiscal year below last year’s level by shifting more issuance toward shorter maturities.
Katayama sought to temper concerns, noting that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently affirmed the sustainability of Japan’s public finances after reviewing the new stimulus package.
BOJ Rate-Hike Expectations
Expectations that the BOJ will raise interest rates are contributing to the upward pressure on yields. Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled the bank will consider a hike at its Dec 19 meeting — language similar to what he used ahead of January’s rate increase.
Traders now assign over an 80% probability to a December rate hike, based on overnight index swaps.
Business leaders are also sounding alarms. Keidanren chair Yoshinobu Tsutsui called the 2% yield level a “key milestone” and urged the government to safeguard market confidence. Japan’s 10-year yield has not consistently traded above 2% since 1997.
Key Takeaways
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield is nearing 2%, the highest since 2006–2007, prompting government attention.
Rising yields reflect concerns about fiscal sustainability and expectations of further BOJ rate hikes.
Takaichi’s extra budget includes ¥11.7 trillion in new bond issuance, though total issuance remains below last year’s level.
The IMF says Japan’s public finances remain sustainable, helping to reassure markets.
Markets assign an 80%+ chance of a BOJ hike on Dec 19.
Keidanren warns that sustained yields above 2% would be a significant shift not seen since 1997.
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