Shares of PETRONAS Chemicals rose after a return to profitability in 1Q, though analysts remain cautious on the sustainability of the recovery.
Share Price Rises on Earnings Turnaround
The stock gained 4.2% to RM5.68, extending a strong rally of nearly 92% since late February.
The rebound was driven by:
- Higher petrochemical prices
- Improved product spreads
- Stronger sales volumes
However, these gains were largely supported by supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions, rather than structural demand recovery.
Analysts Divided on Outlook
Sentiment remains mixed among research houses:
- 9 ‘buy’, 9 ‘hold’, 1 ‘sell’ recommendation
- Average target price: RM6.08 (~7% upside)
While earnings forecasts have been revised higher, many analysts maintain neutral stances due to lingering risks.
Operational and Demand Risks Persist
Key concerns highlighted by analysts include:
- Lower utilisation rates expected in 2Q (around 80% vs 87% in 1Q) due to maintenance
- Weak end-market demand, limiting pricing power
- Risk of industry overcapacity
Additionally, petrochemical prices have started easing from April highs, suggesting potential margin pressure ahead.
Pengerang Plant Recovery in Focus
The restart of the Pengerang Petrochemical Complex (PPC) is a key catalyst:
- Operations expected to gradually resume by June
- Plant has been offline due to feedstock supply disruptions
Improved performance from PPC could support earnings recovery in coming quarters.
Sector Outlook Tied to Geopolitics
The broader sector outlook remains dependent on:
- Supply disruptions in the Middle East
- Potential capacity rationalisation across the industry
Analysts note that sustained disruptions could help rebalance supply-demand dynamics, supporting prices longer term.
Investor Takeaways
- PCHEM returned to profitability, lifting share price momentum.
- Recent gains are driven by supply-side factors, not demand recovery.
- Upside appears limited (~7%) based on consensus target prices.
- Operational risks include maintenance downtime and PPC restart execution.
- Sector outlook hinges on geopolitics and potential capacity rationalisation.
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