China, the world's largest copper consumer, has been on a construction spree, adding smelters to secure critical materials for the energy transition. However, this oversupply is creating fierce competition for raw materials, slashing margins across the global industry.
Calls to limit China’s output and slow down new smelter construction have gone unheeded. If the expansion continues, copper refining could increasingly shift to China, raising concerns among western governments about China’s control over strategic resources.
The issue will take center stage at Asia’s largest copper industry gathering in Shanghai this week. With more smelter capacity than global mine production, miners now hold negotiating power, which could reduce treatment fees to historic lows of around $40 per ton — far below the $80 per ton level seen in 2024.
Renewable energy, EVs, and grid projects are expected to drive copper demand for decades, pushing investment along the supply chain. Yet, smelters are quicker to build than new mines, intensifying the shortage of copper ore.
In addition to China’s growth, India and Indonesia are also building new plants, further tightening the supply of raw materials. Analysts believe Chinese smelters, largely state-owned and cost-effective, can withstand the pressures better than international competitors.
“It’s a long-term struggle for survival,” said Zhao Yongcheng of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “Only those with ample capital and efficient operations will last through the years of ore shortages.”
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