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Russia Holds Key Rate at 21% Amid Surging Inflation

The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
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AmBank expects USD/MYR to trade a tighter range of 3.968 to 4.078

A forex report by AmBank said that it expects the USD/MYR to trade a tighter range of 3.968 to 4.078 on shorter trading days due to Hari Raya holidays, gridlock formation in oil prices and depreciation pressure on CNY.

Ringgit
Last week, USD/MYR broke key supports of 50- and 100-day MA to close below 4.00 level.

It was impressive follow a rather downtrend after the Brexit but the pair has rebounded strongly after that. The currency pair was the second best performing currency with a 2.30% gain against US dollar due to declining 1-month volatility, reduced expectation of higher US
rates and declining cross SGD/MYR below psychological level of 3.00. 

This week, we envisage the pair to trade in a tighter range of 3.968 to 4.078 on shorter
trading days due to Hari Raya holidays, gridlock formation in oil prices and depreciation pressure on CNY.

Chart wise, RSI continued to head south, and along with widening MACD gap, it suggests that the currency pair is likely to be range bound trading. Uptick in 50- day MA crossing above 100-day MA at 4.0456 points to a possibility that the USD/MYR to trade on strengthening bias.

(Source: AmBank FX Weekly report)


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