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Showing posts from April, 2016

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Russia Holds Key Rate at 21% Amid Surging Inflation

The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...

IPIC will pay if 1MDB default

Abu Dhabi's state-owned International Petroleum Investment Co (IPIC) said it would make a US$50.3 million interest payment to holders of notes issued by Malaysian state fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), but only after 1MDB defaults on its payments. A default by 1MDB will occur if the troubled Malaysian sovereign fund fails to make a payment on the 1MDB Energy (Langat) Ltd bond before Monday, April 25, IPIC said in a filing to the London Stock Exchange on Monday. IPIC guarantees the bond. The coupon on the US$1.75 billion bond was due on April 18, but terms of the bond gave a five-day period of grace for the payment, which ends Monday. The Abu Dhabi fund said neither 1MDB Energy (Langat) nor 1MDB have made the payment so far. It said the guarantee has not been called upon yet. "As at the time of this announcement, IPIC is not aware of the Guarantee being called upon. IPIC has always honoured its obligations arising from any agreements it has entered in to ...

WallStreet Update: Dow closes above 18,000 for the first time since last July

Stocks advanced Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising above the 18,000 level for the first time since July, as investors shook off oil’s losses on failed output talks and looked toward a bevy of corporate earnings this week. The index jumped about 100 points to close above 18,000 on Monday. It's a pretty sweet milestone considering the Dow plunged to just 15,451 in January, as Wall Street freaked out over the crash in oil prices and China's economic slowdown. Cooler heads eventually prevailed as investors realized the American economy is not collapsing and cheap oil is actually good for most Americans. The Dow is now up 16.5% from its 2016 low, and is within striking distance of its all-time record high of 18,351 set last May. The S&P 500 also closed at a fresh 2016 high on Monday. Even the Nasdaq is closing in on a key level: The tech index is now down just 1% on the year. That's impressive given the fact the Nasdaq was flirt...

1MDB's dispute with IPIC puts it at risk of default

1MDB back in the news The International Petroleum Investment Co (IPIC) which have a mixed debt-swap agreement with 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) yesterday, is demanding that 1MDB should pay back the USD 1.1 billion owed to it. The Gulf emirate’s International Petroleum Investment Company (Ipic) ended its relationship with its Southeast Asian counterpart in a filing to the London Stock Exchange on Monday.  The Abu Dhabi fund said 1MDB and Malaysia’s ministry of finance were in default on the deal, including an obligation to pay $1.1bn plus interest, and that 1MDB continued to be bound by its commitments under the agreement.  With this new development, 1MDB, which is already a target of global investigations into allegations of money laundering and embezzlement, has another major problem: It now faces the risk of sinking into default. The development leaves 1MDB’s bondholders waiting for an interest payment, due Monday, that may never come. The A...

The Ringgit volatility continues

Just the other day, I got the opportunity to talk to two economists, one from UOB and another from AmInvest and they were pretty happy that the Ringgit has stabilized. Ringgit The article written was published on The Edge Financial Daily on April 18, 2016 (Monday) but then, today, reality sets in as the oil price plunged after the failure in negotiation between the Saudis and Iran. Here's the reality: Ringgit is still very much tied with the movement of the oil and as long as the supply and demand of the oil failed to reach its equilibrium, the Ringgit's volatility should persist. After some good run, the Ringgit fell the most in two weeks as Brent crude plunged after major oil producers failed to come up with an agreement to freeze output and address a supply glut. The disappointment stemming from the weekend meeting in Doha risks reversing a rally in emerging Asia’s best-performing currency this year as a renewed decline in the commodity puts pressure on the governme...