The Federal Reserve is expected to receive validation for its recent jumbo interest rate cut as new data on inflation and consumer demand emerge. Economists predict that the Fed's preferred price metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, will rise by just 0.1% for the second time in three months, marking a 2.3% annual gain—the smallest increase since early 2021, and slightly above the Fed's 2% target.
This decline in inflation reflects lower energy and food prices, as well as a moderation in core costs. The PCE price gauge excluding food and fuel is expected to rise 0.2%, according to government data to be released on Friday. These easing inflationary pressures allowed the Fed to confidently implement its first rate cut in over four years, slashing rates by half a percentage point on September 18.
The cut represents a pivotal shift in policy, aimed at preventing further deterioration in the job market. Bloomberg economists noted, "The Fed's jumbo cut increases the chance of a soft landing, but by no means ensures it." They project the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by the end of 2024 and to 5% next year.
Meanwhile, a slew of economic data is expected this week, including new-home sales, second-quarter GDP, and updates on personal spending and income. Economists predict steady consumer spending growth, a key factor in sustaining economic expansion.
Fed officials, including Governors Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler, and Lisa Cook, are set to make appearances throughout the week, giving investors further insight into the central bank’s thinking.
As the Fed’s rate cut takes center stage, global markets will also be closely watching key events in other regions, including central bank decisions in Switzerland, Sweden, and Eastern Europe, alongside inflation reports from Asia and Europe.
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