Key Takeaway: Huawei’s ambitions to produce advanced AI and smartphone chips have hit a wall due to US sanctions, keeping the company stuck with 7nm chip technology until at least 2026.
The Challenge:
- Huawei’s next two Ascend processors, designed to compete with Nvidia’s AI accelerators, will rely on 7nm architecture, mainstream since 2018.
- US restrictions block access to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines from ASML, essential for cutting-edge chip production.
Implications:
- Lagging Behind:By 2025, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) will be mass-producing 2nm chips, leaving Huawei three generations behind.
- Production Struggles:Huawei’s partner, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC), faces poor yield and reliability issues even for 7nm chips.
Broader Impact on China:
- National AI Goals:Huawei’s setbacks highlight the difficulty China faces in achieving self-sufficiency in semiconductors, even with heavy state backing and R&D investments.
- Inferior Domestic Equipment:Beijing’s push for locally made chipmaking tools has been hindered by subpar performance, forcing reliance on older deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography techniques, which are costly and error-prone.
Current Workarounds:
- Multi-Patterning Technique:Huawei and partners attempt to push the limits of DUV machines through quadruple patterning. However, the process increases defects, costs, and variability, making it unsuitable for high-volume 5nm production.
- Domestic Substitutes:Despite Beijing’s push for alternatives to Nvidia’s AI chips, Huawei struggles to meet demand for its own Kirin smartphone processors and Ascend AI chips.
Market Response:
- Huawei's silence on processor details for its upcoming Mate 70 smartphone, launching Nov. 26, signals uncertainty. Instead, Huawei focuses on its Harmony OS to offset hardware delays.
- Biden Administration Restrictions:China is further constrained by bans on advanced equipment from Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Nvidia’s most powerful AI chips.
Outlook:
“China faces significant hurdles to achieve profitable 5nm production and scale up its domestic chip ecosystem,” said Ying-Wu Liu, analyst at Yole Group. Despite incremental progress, self-sufficiency in advanced semiconductors remains a distant goal.
US sanctions have successfully slowed Huawei’s and China’s technological progress, leaving them reliant on outdated technologies as global competitors continue to advance.
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