Key Takeaway: Japanese and Chinese investors sold a combined $113.2 billion in US Treasuries during Q3 2024, signaling concerns over inflationary policies and geopolitical risks tied to President-elect Donald Trump's impending administration.
Ahead of the US presidential election, Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion, while Chinese funds offloaded $51.3 billion of US government debt, according to US Treasury data. The moves came as Treasury yields peaked in September and concerns grew over Trump’s low-tax, high-tariff policies, which are expected to fuel inflation and higher yields.
Key Drivers Behind the Sell-Off
- Pre-Election Uncertainty:Both countries reacted defensively to election risks, with Japan’s sales driven by fears of a Trump win and China responding to geopolitical tensions.
- Yield Concerns:Treasuries dropped 4% since mid-September due to expectations of higher US yields under Trump’s fiscal policies.
- Currency Interventions:Japan’s sales were partly influenced by its yen-buying intervention in July, where the Ministry of Finance sold $35.9 billion in dollars.
- Custodial Adjustments:China’s net sales were offset by $20.2 billion in purchases via custodial accounts in Belgium, a hub for Chinese Treasury holdings.
Current Holdings and Influence
Despite the sell-off, Japan and China remain major players in the US debt market, holding $1.02 trillion and $731 billion in Treasuries, respectively.
Future Outlook
- Continued Treasury Sales:Analysts like Nick Twidale expect more defensive measures, with China and Japan likely to continue reducing Treasury holdings as Trump’s policies unfold.
- Market Impact:Uncertainty over Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions is contributing to higher yields and ongoing volatility.
The significant Treasury sell-off reflects mounting concerns over the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies and highlights the critical role Japan and China play in shaping the US debt market.
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