Key Takeaway: Taiwan's stock market hit a two-week low on concerns over moderating export growth and risks tied to potential US tariff hikes under President-elect Donald Trump.
Taiwan Market Highlights
- Stocks in Taipei: Fell 1.1%, led by a 1% decline in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and an 8.5% drop in Foxconn Technology.
- Taiwan Dollar: Weakened by 0.2% against the US dollar.
- October Exports: Estimated to grow 3.8% YoY, down from 4.6% in September, signaling slower growth in export demand.
Semiconductor Sector Risks:
- Strong demand for AI and high-performance computing chips has likely peaked, according to analysts at DBS.
- Trump’s proposed tariffs and technology restrictions pose a significant challenge for Taiwan’s trade-dependent semiconductor industry.
Regional Market Snapshot
- South Korea:
- Equities surged 2.2%, driven by Samsung Electronics’ buyback plans.
- Thailand and Malaysia:
- Bangkok: Gained 0.8%.
- Kuala Lumpur: Rose 0.7%.
Philippines:
- Stocks up 1% following the launch of a new interest rate swap market to enhance liquidity and bond trading. The peso remained stable.
Indonesia:
- Rupiah flat ahead of Bank Indonesia’s rate decision later this week.
- Jakarta stocks dipped 0.2%.
- Mandiri Sekuritas revised its 2025 rate cut forecast from 100 basis points to 50 basis points, expecting the central bank to maintain a cautious stance.
Global Context
The movements in Asian equities follow last week’s global sell-off, triggered by concerns over:
- Trump’s inflationary fiscal policies.
- Strong US retail sales data, which raises expectations that the Federal Reserve might pause rate cuts in 2025.
Outlook for Taiwan
- Taiwan’s export-heavy economy, particularly its semiconductor sector, faces risks from US trade policies and a cooling global electronics demand.
- The October export data, due Wednesday, will provide key insights into the trajectory of Taiwan's trade performance and broader economic outlook.
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