Key Takeaway: Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, even if Opec+ production cuts persist, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its latest oil market report, the IEA forecasts a supply surplus for 2025, with global demand projected to rise by 990,000 bpd next year. This outlook reflects weakened Chinese demand, which saw a year-on-year drop of 270,000 bpd in the third quarter, marking six months of consecutive declines through September.
For 2024, the IEA raised its demand growth forecast slightly by 60,000 bpd to 920,000 bpd, driven by stronger-than-expected gasoil demand in OECD nations during the third quarter. The report highlights a shift toward a potential oversupply, underscoring the challenges for oil producers facing tepid demand growth in key markets like China.
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