Key Takeaway: The South Korean won, one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies, faces further depreciation risks as Trump’s potential tariffs and macroeconomic challenges weigh on its outlook.
The South Korean won hit 1,410.70 per dollar last week, its weakest since November 2022, amid fears that US President-elect Donald Trump may impose tariffs on Korean goods. Analysts predict the won may decline an additional 0.7%, adding to this year’s 7.7% drop.
Factors Driving Weakness:
- Export Dependence: South Korea’s exports, particularly semiconductors critical for AI, are vulnerable to scrutiny as the US is its second-largest trading partner after China.
- Macro Pressures: Rising US bond yields and foreign selling of Korean stocks have further weakened the currency. Key companies, such as Samsung Electronics, reported disappointing earnings, spurring equity outflows.
Market Outlook:
- Bank of America Securities expects the won to hover near 1,400 per dollar through 2024, underperforming regional peers due to persistent equity outflows.
- Early November trade data, due Nov 21, will provide insight into the pace of export recovery and prospects for a central bank rate cut.
- Analysts note that technical indicators show the dollar-won pair is nearing overbought territory, suggesting limited downside in the near term. However, intervention by policymakers may provide temporary support.
Expert Views:
- Shaun Lim, FX strategist, warns that Trump’s focus could shift from Taiwan to Korea, citing chip industry tensions.
- Moon Junghiu of KB Koomin Bank revised his year-end forecast to 1,330 per dollar, reflecting continued downside risks.
Key Economic Events This Week:
- Nov 18: Thailand GDP, Japan machine orders, Singapore non-oil exports.
- Nov 19: Malaysia trade data, Philippines balance of payments.
- Nov 20: South Korea PPI, Indonesia rate decision, Taiwan export orders.
- Nov 21: South Korea 20-day trade data, Hong Kong CPI.
- Nov 22: Japan CPI, Malaysia CPI, Taiwan unemployment rate.
As Trump’s fiscal policies create uncertainty for trade-reliant economies, the Korean won remains vulnerable, with risks of further depreciation persisting into 2025.
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