Key Takeaway: Japan’s core machinery orders fell unexpectedly by 0.7% in September, signaling a pause in recovery, though growth is anticipated in the coming quarter.
September Highlights
Month-on-Month Decline:
- Core machinery orders dropped 0.7%, missing economists’ expectations for a 1.9% increase.
- This marks the second consecutive monthly decline.
Year-on-Year Decline:
- Orders fell 4.8% YoY, sharply underperforming forecasts of a 2.2% rise.
Sector Performance:
- Manufacturers: Orders were flat month-on-month.
- Non-Manufacturers: Orders rose 1.5%, showing resilience in some areas.
Economic Outlook
- Government Stance:The Cabinet Office maintained its assessment that the recovery is pausing.
- Quarterly Projections:
- Machinery orders are expected to grow 5.7% in Q4 2024, indicating potential improvement in capital spending.
Implications
Core machinery orders, a volatile but critical gauge of capital expenditure over the next 6-9 months, reflect uncertainty in Japan’s economic recovery. While flat manufacturing orders and weak YoY figures highlight challenges, the positive outlook for Q4 suggests business confidence may rebound. Policymakers and investors will closely watch upcoming data for signs of sustained recovery.
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