Key Takeaway: Emerging Asian stocks surged on Tuesday, with Thailand and the Philippines gaining on rate-cut hopes, while Singapore's market hit a 17-year high driven by financials.
Market Highlights
Thailand:
- Stock Market: Rose 1.3%, reaching its highest since Nov. 8.
- Rate Outlook:
- Slowing private consumption in Q3 has increased pressure on the Bank of Thailand to lower rates.
- Analysts at TISCO Securities foresee a 25-basis-point cut in Q1 2025.
Philippines:
- Stock Market: Increased 1.1%, marking its highest since Nov. 12.
- Rate-Cut Signals:
- BSP Governor Eli Remolona hinted at a possible third rate cut at the December meeting or in early 2025, with further cuts expected throughout the year.
- Citi analysts project a 25-bp rate cut in December and a total of 75 bps in 2025.
Singapore: A 17-Year High
Stock Market:
- The Straits Times Index rose 0.9%, fueled by gains in financial stocks.
- Analysts expect continued momentum as the central bank introduces stimulus measures to boost trading liquidity and valuation multiples.
Outlook:
- Measures to strengthen Singapore's equity market will be rolled out through 2025, according to Morgan Stanley.
Other Regional Performers
- Taipei: Rebounded from Monday’s losses, gaining 1.3%.
- Jakarta: Increased 1.1%.
- Mumbai: Up 1.3%.
Currency Movements
- Winners:
- Malaysian Ringgit: Gained 0.3%.
- Indonesian Rupiah: Up 0.2%.
- South Korean Won: Increased 0.2%.
Broader Context
Impact of Trump Presidency:
- Losses in emerging markets had widened since Donald Trump’s election, with expectations of tariffs and a rallying dollar slowing interest rate cuts globally.
Outlook for Emerging Markets:
- Analysts remain optimistic about Southeast Asia’s performance in 2024, with ongoing rate cuts and stimulus measures likely to support growth into 2025.
Conclusion
Emerging Asian markets are rallying on rate-cut optimism and strategic reforms, with Thailand and the Philippines leading the charge. Meanwhile, Singapore’s 17-year high signals long-term bullishness, as the region prepares for a boost in trading liquidity and market reforms through 2025.
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