Key Takeaway: The IMF cautions that "tit-for-tat" tariffs could disrupt Asia’s economic growth, raise costs, and destabilize global supply chains, despite the region’s role as a global growth engine.
Speaking at a forum in Cebu, IMF Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan highlighted the risks of escalating trade tensions, including US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods and 10% levies on other imports. These measures could harm global trade, inflate costs, and dampen growth prospects for Asia’s export-driven economies.
Major Concerns
- Disrupted Supply Chains:Retaliatory tariffs could lead to longer and less efficient supply chains, hampering regional trade and productivity.
- Global Economic Impact:Higher tariffs may result in increased inflation in the US, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in an already weak global economic environment.
- Escalating Trade Tensions:The European Union’s recent decision to impose tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese-built electric vehicles has already triggered retaliatory measures from Beijing, exacerbating global trade uncertainties.
Growth Outlook
- Asia’s Resilience:Despite risks, the IMF forecasts Asia’s economy to grow by 4.6% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, outpacing the global growth projection of 3.2% for both years.
- Monetary Policy Risks:Uncertainty around monetary policy in advanced economies could influence capital flows, exchange rates, and financial markets across Asia.
IMF's Warning
Srinivasan emphasized the "acute risk" of escalating trade tensions, which could create prolonged uncertainty for Asia’s economic transition and global trade stability.
While Asia remains a key engine for global growth, retaliatory tariffs and trade tensions pose significant threats to the region’s economic stability and long-term prospects. Coordinated efforts to mitigate trade disruptions are crucial to sustaining growth momentum.
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