The S&P 500 soared to an all-time high, surpassing the 6,000-point mark on Friday, fueled by optimism over Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election. At the same time, Treasury yields retreated as investors celebrated the potential economic policies under the newly re-elected president.
While the broader global market sentiment was subdued, particularly due to disappointment over China’s lackluster fiscal support, U.S. investors were undeterred. The S&P 500 Index hit an intraday peak of 6,012.45 points, ultimately closing up 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite remained flat, posting its best weekly performance in months.
Shares of Tesla Inc. saw a dramatic 8.2% surge, driving the company’s market capitalization to a staggering US$1 trillion (RM4.38 trillion) for the first time since 2022. This spike came amid growing investor confidence in Musk's support for Trump, signaling that the business-friendly policies under the new administration could benefit high-growth sectors like electric vehicles.
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, noted that several factors are fueling the U.S. stock market rally: “The Fed’s rate cuts, a robust U.S. economy, and the Republican party’s political victories all contribute to investor optimism.”
This clean sweep by the Republicans mirrors the outcome of the November 2016 election, which preceded a 22% S&P 500 gain in 2017. Investors are betting that Trump’s presidency will usher in lighter regulations and tax cuts, which could act as a further catalyst for U.S. economic growth.
While Wall Street cheered, global markets were less enthusiastic. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.7%, and the MSCI world stock index was flat after hitting a record high earlier in the day. Germany's DAX dropped 0.8%, although it had recently posted its best daily performance of 2024, spurred by expectations that Germany could scrap its debt brake.
China’s Disappointment Dampens Sentiment
China’s unveiling of a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.40 trillion) debt package aimed at easing local government financing strains and stabilizing the economy failed to meet expectations. Many analysts speculated that Beijing might hold back its financial stimulus ahead of Trump’s official takeover in January. The offshore yuan weakened 0.7% to 7.2011 per dollar, and China-exposed European luxury stocks took a hit, with many falling over 3%.
Despite the disappointment in China, investors in the U.S. shrugged off concerns about a lack of a massive fiscal stimulus and continued to buy into U.S. equities.
Fed Cuts Rates, Inflation Concerns Loom
Following the Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury dropping 8.3 basis points to 4.343%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled continued, patient policy easing, although he noted that inflation remains elevated and the economic outlook is uncertain.
Pradhan of Amundi Investment Institute noted that the Fed’s policy shift is in line with expectations of a more uncertain and measured pace of monetary easing as the new administration takes charge in 2025.
The U.S. dollar index rose to 104.91, reflecting increased market volatility as investors weigh the economic impact of Trump’s second term. In the currency market, both the euro and sterling weakened against the dollar, while the yen slipped 0.3% to 152.46 per dollar.
Bitcoin and Commodities in the Spotlight
In other market news, Bitcoin hit a record high, up 0.8% following a near 10% surge this week. Trump has promised to position the U.S. as the "crypto capital of the planet," further boosting investor interest in digital assets.
Meanwhile, gold fell 0.9% to US$2,683.87 after a roller-coaster week, having surged to an all-time high of US$2,790.15 earlier in the week. Oil prices also retreated, with Brent crude down 2.1% to US$74.01 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude falling 2.6% to US$70.45.
Outlook: U.S. Market Poised for Growth
Looking ahead, market strategists, including Guy Miller of Zurich Insurance Group, believe that the U.S. stock market has a “tailwind” for growth, driven by favorable policies from the new Trump administration. Tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus are expected to provide support for the U.S. economy and equity markets in the coming months. As the year winds down, U.S. stocks are positioned to benefit from these catalysts, with potential for further gains into 2025.
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