China’s economy is forecasted to show a modest recovery in October, spurred by recent government stimulus efforts. Key economic indicators are anticipated to reflect this improvement when data is released on Friday, with industrial production expected to rise 5.6% from last year, marking the highest growth since May, and retail sales projected to increase by 3.8%.
Despite these signs of momentum, sustained growth remains uncertain. Concerns linger over a potential impact from President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, which could significantly reduce China’s export earnings.
Highlights of the expected data include:
- Industrial output: Predicted to achieve the strongest growth rate in months.
- Retail sales: Boosted by October's holiday season, though still below pre-pandemic levels.
- Fixed-asset investment: Likely up by 3.5% year-to-date.
- Housing market: Early data shows a 7.1% rise in property sales in October, though prices and long-term investments remain challenged.
While initial improvements are evident, economists highlight that sustaining this rebound depends heavily on effective execution of fiscal, monetary, and housing policies to counteract ongoing challenges, particularly in property and consumer spending.
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