Key Takeaway: China’s economic indicators are set to show modest growth as government stimulus supports industrial output, retail sales, and housing demand, though the sustainability of recovery remains uncertain.
China’s economy is projected to gain momentum in October, with industrial output and retail sales likely rising due to government stimulus introduced in September. Economists forecast industrial production growth of 5.6% and a 3.8% rise in retail sales, supported by a long October holiday that boosted tourism and spending.
Despite these improvements, the recovery faces challenges. The housing market remains weak, with property investment down by nearly 10% this year, though recent policies helped boost October home sales by 7.1%. Economists caution that turning these early gains into a sustainable rebound will require effective implementation of fiscal, monetary, and housing measures.
October’s Economic Data Highlights:
- Industrial production: Expected to rise 5.6% year-on-year.
- Retail sales: Forecast to increase 3.8% from last year, reaching a record 4.5 trillion yuan.
- Fixed-asset investment: Expected to grow 3.5% for the year’s first 10 months.
- Property investment: Forecast to decline 9.9%, slightly improved from previous months.
- Jobless rate: Expected to hold steady at 5.1%.
As global trade tensions rise, including potential tariffs under US President-elect Donald Trump, the outlook for China’s export-driven growth remains uncertain, underscoring the need for continued domestic policy support.
Comments
Post a Comment