Palm oil prices are expected to stay above RM5,000 through 1Q2025 due to tight supplies from Indonesia and Malaysia and Indonesia’s upcoming B40 biodiesel mandate, according to BMI (Fitch Group). However, additional price increases may be limited by seasonal factors, including reduced demand in the northern hemisphere and the end of Diwali-driven buying in India.
La Niña conditions anticipated in 4Q2024 could influence production, with mild rainfall potentially boosting yields without severe flooding. The B40 biodiesel mandate rollout in Indonesia is also seen as a factor that could impact supply-demand dynamics.
BMI notes that palm oil demand in food processing remains strong, though household-level substitution to other edible oils could occur due to palm oil's price premium over soybean oil.
BMI projects the global palm oil surplus to narrow from 1.8 million tonnes in 2023/2024 to 1.1 million tonnes in 2024/2025, contrasting with USDA’s higher surplus forecasts. Production is expected to grow modestly, while consumption is forecasted to rise from 74.3 million tonnes to 78.5 million tonnes by 2024/2025.
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