With the anticipated impact of president-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies, currency traders are increasingly positioning the euro and yuan as likely to experience the most significant declines. This shift comes as Trump's proposed tariff policies are expected to drive the US dollar higher.
In the week following Trump’s election victory, investors have leaned heavily into dollar call options—bets on a stronger dollar—primarily against the euro and yuan. Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp (DTCC) highlights that euro-dollar and dollar-yuan options were the most actively traded on Monday, with dollar-yuan call option trades on the DTCC notably outweighing put options by a 3 to 2 ratio.
Trump's tariff-heavy agenda, which includes a potential 60% fee on Chinese imports and an across-the-board 10% tariff on all US imports, is fueling these moves toward a stronger dollar.
On the political front, European risks are compounding the outlook for the euro. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s suggestion to advance a parliamentary confidence vote before Christmas, potentially moving Germany's early election to February, and European Central Bank considerations of a December rate cut, have added to the pressure on the currency.
The shifts in sentiment are reflected in rising implied volatility for major currencies. Measures of expected future fluctuations in USD/CNH and EUR/USD are both climbing, with analysts noting expectations for USD/CNH to reach 7.35-7.40 and EUR/USD moving closer to parity.
The anticipation of a stronger dollar has led clients, especially in the Asia Pacific trading zone, to employ options as tools to express these views on a stronger USD.
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