China is on track to achieve a record $1 trillion trade surplus in 2024, a shift likely to increase tensions with major economies. As of October, China’s trade surplus reached $785 billion, marking a 16% increase from 2023, driven by robust export volumes as domestic demand remains weak.
The surplus has led to significant imbalances with key partners: up 4.4% with the US, 9.6% with the EU, and nearly 36% with ASEAN nations. With President-elect Trump set to take office, experts anticipate new tariffs on Chinese goods, echoing protective measures already implemented by countries in South America and Europe.
Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows from China are rising, marking a potential net FDI decline for the first time since 1990. In response, Beijing is promising increased support for industries to stabilize trade and employment.
A potential currency war looms, as a weaker yuan could make Chinese exports cheaper. India has signaled readiness to let the rupee weaken if the yuan falls further, as China’s surplus with India has already hit $85 billion this year.
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