Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari voiced his support for the recent 50 basis point rate cut, calling it the "right decision" in light of progress on inflation and the risk of rising unemployment. Kashkari, known for his previously hawkish stance, noted that the balance of risks has now shifted away from inflation and towards a potential weakening in the labor market.
"The balance of risks has shifted... warranting a lower federal funds rate," Kashkari said, referring to the Fed's main policy lever. He acknowledged that despite the rate cut, the overall stance remains restrictive.
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by half a percentage point to the 4.75%-5.00% range, surprising many analysts with the larger-than-expected move. Kashkari, who is not one of the Fed's voting policymakers this year, had previously been cautious about cutting rates too quickly, but now sees this move as appropriate given the disinflationary progress and the softening labor market.
Kashkari hinted that further cuts might be on the horizon. "I think the 25 was reasonable, 50 was reasonable," he said, reflecting on the size of the rate cut. He now expects quarter-percentage-point rate cuts at the final two meetings of the year, aligning with projections that the Fed may reduce the policy rate by another half a percentage point before year-end.
Looking ahead, Kashkari’s projections suggest an additional full-percentage-point reduction in 2025, which would bring the policy rate closer to a neutral level of 3.4%, where borrowing costs neither stimulate nor restrict economic growth.
While inflation has dropped to 2.5%, Kashkari emphasized that the disinflationary process is still ongoing, and the path of future rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data. Though reluctant to declare victory over inflation, he acknowledged that the risks have shifted towards slower hiring and a softer labor market.
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