Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley has suggested a compelling case for a half-point interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. Speaking at a forum organized by The Bretton Woods Committee in Singapore, Dudley stated, "I think there’s a strong case for 50," highlighting his preference for a more aggressive monetary policy move.
Dudley, who led the New York Fed until 2018 and now chairs the Bretton Woods Committee, pointed to a slowing US labor market and emphasized that the risks to jobs are more significant than ongoing inflation challenges. He referenced Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole last month, which underscored a desire to prevent further weakening in the labor market.
Dudley's remarks arrive as recent data showed core US inflation unexpectedly rose in August, reinforcing the likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut next week. Despite this, Dudley believes there is room for a more substantial reduction. "The question is why don’t you just get started?" Dudley remarked, suggesting that the decision ultimately rests with Powell and how much support he can garner for a more aggressive approach.
Some Wall Street banks, including Citigroup, had initially predicted a half-point cut but scaled down their expectations to a quarter-point cut following the latest inflation data. Nevertheless, Citigroup still anticipates a total of 125 basis points of rate reductions this year.
Market and economic analysts remain divided over the trajectory of US monetary policy. US swaps data currently indicates pricing for over 100 basis points of cuts this year, driven by growing concerns that the economy could slip into a recession and require additional support.
Earlier this month, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed an "open-minded" stance regarding a larger rate cut and stated his willingness to advocate for one if conditions warrant it. Dudley underscored the unusual uncertainty heading into next week’s meeting, noting, "It’s very unusual to go into the meeting with this level of uncertainty — usually the Fed doesn’t like to surprise markets."
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