Donald Trump’s re-election has removed some immediate uncertainties for European IPOs, but his potential tariffs on imports and stance on global trade present challenges for Europe’s longer-term IPO outlook.
Spanish utility Cox Abg Group SA and Croatian grocery chain Studenac Group SA pushed forward with IPOs this week to list before year-end. Goldman Sachs also marketed a block of shares in CVC Capital Partners plc after a stock rally. However, most of Europe’s IPO pipeline is set for 2025, coinciding with Trump’s return to office, creating concerns about potential 10% to 20% tariffs on imports, which could hit export-dependent sectors like autos and chemicals.
Trump’s skepticism on climate policies and goal to end the Ukraine conflict also add complexity to Europe’s investment landscape. Vincent Mortier of Amundi SA warned that Europe’s IPO market may face challenges due to these policies.
Europe’s IPO market has seen a modest recovery, raising $19.2 billion so far in 2024. However, the S&P 500’s recent record high and tech stock rally could attract European companies to list in the US instead, driven by potentially lower corporate taxes and higher valuations, according to Chris Mort at Freshfields.
Meanwhile, Europe’s IPO market could see a boost if geopolitical tensions rise, with companies like Shein opting for London listings after encountering resistance in the US. Germany’s upcoming election also raises hopes for a revival in European listings as private equity funds face pressure to demonstrate value.
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