China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) has started discussions on a proposal to shift some off-balance-sheet debt of local governments onto their official accounts. This move could raise local government debt limits, marking the first such mid-year adjustment since 2015.
The proposed debt swap aims to alleviate financial burdens for local governments struggling with revenue declines and mounting financial obligations. Economists predict that the debt swap could involve between six trillion and ten trillion yuan (RM3.69 trillion to RM6.14 trillion), though details remain undisclosed.
Key Points:
- Debt Swap Program: The plan would allow local governments to bring hidden debt into official accounts, freeing up funds for expenses like salaries and infrastructure. This debt is often tied to Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) created for infrastructure and urban development.
- Market Speculation: Economists anticipate that this debt swap could proceed over several years. However, additional fiscal measures may not be introduced until the Central Economic Work Conference next month.
- Economic Context: China's economy faces slowing growth, a real estate downturn, and reduced fiscal revenue, impacting local governments' ability to meet financial obligations.
- Investor Sentiment: Investors and analysts view this debt swap as a positive move but remain cautious, particularly as they await further fiscal guidance and potential impacts from the US election.
The proposal reflects a strategic approach to manage local debt without immediately increasing central government borrowing, balancing fiscal needs with market expectations.
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