As the US presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tightens, Japan’s yen and stock markets are on high alert, with significant impacts expected based on the outcome. Analysts highlight that a Harris win could bolster the yen due to likely US rate cuts, while a Trump victory may lift Japanese stocks short-term but bring risks of new tariffs that could hurt Japan’s export-reliant economy.
If Harris wins, Japan’s yield gap with the US could narrow, strengthening the yen. The dollar-yen might test 150 in such a scenario, according to Nomura Securities. Conversely, a Trump win might see the yen sliding toward 160, as strategists warn, risking its lowest level against the dollar in nearly four decades. Japanese stocks could enjoy an initial rally under Trump due to his pro-business policies, but new tariffs on trade partners, especially China, could weigh heavily on Japan’s exporters.
Trump’s tariff plans, including the potential for 10-20% duties on all imports, threaten key Japanese industries like automobiles, electronics, and machinery. A red wave in Congress could further amplify these economic risks for Japan, as US fiscal spending and policies could fluctuate dramatically. With volatility rising, the election’s outcome may steer Japanese markets for the foreseeable future.
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