The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released a pessimistic economic outlook on Tuesday, highlighting challenges such as rising unemployment, weakened domestic activity, and delayed business investments due to financial pressures.
In its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, the RBNZ pointed to reduced demand due to subdued global growth and high interest rates. Businesses are reporting lower profitability and subdued demand, compounded by cost pressures that are impacting trade.
Key takeaways from the report include:
- Rising Unemployment: Increasing unemployment rates are creating acute financial difficulties for some households, according to the central bank.
- Economic Contraction: The RBNZ expects that New Zealand's economy shrank in the third quarter, as previous cash rate hikes were implemented to curb demand and reduce inflation.
- Interest Rate Cuts: Since August, the central bank has cut the official cash rate by 75 basis points, with the goal of supporting demand recovery as inflation declines.
- Lag in Economic Impact: RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr expressed concern over the delayed effects of interest rate adjustments, hoping to avoid any unexpected downturns during this period.
Despite these economic challenges, the RBNZ noted that New Zealand’s financial system remains stable. Banks are prepared for a slight increase in non-performing loans but remain well-positioned to support households and businesses.
Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby emphasized that New Zealand banks are capable of handling potential loan defaults, keeping financial risks contained amidst the economic slowdown.
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