Donald Trump’s election victory has shifted investor interest to India and Japan due to concerns over potential tariffs on Chinese goods, which could reach up to 60%.
Morgan Stanley has reiterated its preference for India and Japan stocks over China, as India is seen as a manufacturing alternative with a domestic-driven economy, offering relative immunity to global risks. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks stand to gain from higher U.S. interest rates, which may weaken the yen and benefit Japan’s exporters.
Supply chain shifts away from China also support investment in India, Japan, and Southeast Asia, according to veteran investor Mark Mobius, who noted that India has the labor force to match China’s.
Following the election, the MSCI Japan and MSCI India indexes rose over 1.5%, while MSCI China dropped more than 2%. Analysts expect ongoing pressure on Chinese stocks if Beijing’s stimulus efforts fall short, potentially increasing investments in Japan.
However, Societe Generale maintains a positive view on China, expecting continued policy support for its equities. Despite short-term gains, India and Japan face challenges of their own: India is dealing with a post-pandemic slowdown, and Japan is navigating currency volatility.
The “Trump trade” may bring immediate foreign flows to India, though maintaining that momentum could be challenging, according to Emkay Global.
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