The US dollar fell on Monday as polling data showed no clear lead in the US presidential election, easing expectations of a Trump victory that previously bolstered the dollar and Treasury yields. An index tracking the greenback dropped by the most in over six weeks, with major peers like the yen and Australian dollar gaining against it. Treasury futures rose as investors sought stability.
The latest poll, showing Kamala Harris ahead by 47%-44% in Iowa, has investors cautious, while the US dollar gauge and 10-year Treasury yields had recently reached highs amid speculation of a Trump win. His support for looser fiscal policy and high tariffs has raised concerns about inflation, potentially impacting Treasuries.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose, extending gains as OPEC+ delayed a production hike, and West Texas Intermediate climbed more than 1%. In China, officials announced measures to attract foreign investment in publicly traded firms, just days before the US election, which could have implications for China’s economy if Trump were to return to office.
Key Market Moves:
- Stocks: S&P 500 futures up 0.1%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6%.
- Currencies: The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0893; the yen up 0.8% to 151.80 per dollar.
- Commodities: WTI crude up 1.3% to $70.36/barrel; gold up 0.1% at $2,740.21/ounce.
This week’s pivotal events include the US Federal Reserve's rate decision, global PMI data, and multiple CPI reports as markets await the election outcome and central bank moves.
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