AmInvestment Bank forecasts that palm oil prices will rally in 2025, driven by a tight supply of edible oils and growing biodiesel demand. The research house has upgraded the plantation sector to “overweight”, with expectations that crude palm oil (CPO) prices will average 6.3% higher next year, around RM4,250 per tonne.
Factors contributing to this positive outlook include:
- Supply shortages of competing oils like rapeseed and sunflower.
- Biodiesel demand growth and export restrictions in Indonesia.
- A potential dip in Malaysia’s output following a 2024 bumper harvest and labor shortages due to a foreign worker recruitment freeze.
Currently, CPO prices have risen 33% year-to-date to nearly RM4,000 per tonne, supporting an 9% gain in the Bursa Malaysia Plantation Index. This contrasts with Malaysia’s official projection for CPO prices, expected to be between RM3,500 and RM4,000 in 2025 amid improved weather and labor availability.
Further, EU deforestation regulations set for 2025 may drive demand as importers accelerate purchases. Non-compliance could create a 600,000-tonne gap in the EU market, where smallholders play a significant role in production.
AmInvestment’s top sector pick is Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK) for its young tree profile and robust downstream earnings recovery.
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