Indonesia’s economy grew 4.95% in the third quarter, missing the projected 5% growth, as factory closures and job losses dampened consumption and investment. This slowdown comes as newly inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto aims to ramp up growth to as high as 8% during his term.
Key Factors Affecting Growth:
- Manufacturing Sector Decline: Labour-intensive industries like apparel and footwear are facing a significant drop in overseas demand, leading to factory shutdowns and increased debt distress among major players, including Sritex and Pan Brothers.
- Rising Unemployment: Job cuts surged 31% year-on-year by October, reaching nearly 60,000 as manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month.
- Middle-Class Setback: About 9.5 million Indonesians have dropped out of the middle class since the pandemic, weakening a crucial driver of domestic consumption, which comprises more than half of Indonesia’s GDP.
Government Response
To support the economy, the government has:
- Extended Tax Perks: Incentives for home purchases aim to stimulate the property market.
- Imposed Import Duties: New tariffs are designed to protect local industries from cheaper imports.
- Monetary Policy Adjustments: Bank Indonesia has started lowering interest rates to encourage spending and investment, although further cuts have paused amid currency volatility.
Industrial Strategy Shift Needed
Economists suggest a shift towards export-oriented service industries, such as tourism, which could create more jobs and generate foreign exchange. While refining raw metals onshore has boosted growth, it has yet to produce sufficient employment.
The latest figures reveal the hurdles Indonesia faces as it navigates economic recovery, underscoring the need for diversified growth strategies to sustain its ambitious targets.
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