Last week, Honda Motor Co and Nissan Motor Co announced their collaboration to develop in-vehicle software. However, Professor Hiroaki Takada from Nagoya University believes Toyota Motor Corp should also join the alliance to better compete against global rivals.
Key Points:
Software-Defined Vehicles: Japan aims for its companies to capture 30% of the global software-defined vehicle market by 2030. The operating systems that power smarter and more autonomous cars will be as important as engines and batteries in the future of passenger transport.
Current Leaders: Currently, Chinese automakers and Tesla Inc are leading in the field of automotive operating systems. Takada suggests that the car industry will likely be dominated by only two or three major operating system makers, similar to how Google's Android and Apple's iOS dominate smartphones.
Potential Collaboration: If Toyota were to join Honda, Nissan, and possibly Mitsubishi Motors Corp in developing a car operating system, it could be a strategic move to position Japan as a world leader in the industry.
Competitive Landscape: Google and Huawei Technologies Co are expected to be strong players in the automotive operating system market, and even Tesla may struggle to compete alone.
Sales Figures: In the fiscal year ending in March, Honda, Nissan, and Mitsubishi sold approximately 8.5 million units globally. In comparison, Toyota group companies sold around 11 million units, and when combined with affiliated carmakers like Mazda, Subaru, and Suzuki, the figure reaches about 16.5 million units.
Future Market Potential: Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry forecasts that software-defined vehicle sales could reach 35 million to 41 million units worldwide by 2030, with robotaxi services generating ¥80 trillion (US$550 billion) in revenue by 2035.
Industry Insight: The importance of this market opportunity became evident to Japanese automakers at last year’s Shanghai auto show. Takeru Ito, director of the ministry’s mobility digital transformation office, acknowledged Japan's lag in this field and emphasized the need for collaboration to remain competitive.
Current Developments: Honda plans to collaborate with Nissan on operating systems, aiming to introduce them in North American electric vehicles next year. Toyota is set to launch its own operating system, Arene, next year, potentially dividing Japan into two software camps.
Challenges for Legacy Automakers: Legacy car manufacturers are already struggling with the costs of developing electric vehicles. The transition to software-defined vehicles adds further financial strain, and continuing with traditional practices will be unsustainable, according to Nobuhito Abe, partner and Asia Pacific lead of automotive at Kearney.
Conclusion:
The potential collaboration between Toyota, Honda, and Nissan on automotive software could be a game-changer for Japan's auto industry. By joining forces, these companies could strengthen their position in the global market and better compete with leading foreign rivals. As the automotive industry shifts towards smarter and more autonomous vehicles, strategic alliances and innovation in software development will be crucial for success.
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