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The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high  21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to  8.9%  in November, well above the central bank’s  4% target , with inflation expectations reaching  13.9%  in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s  200-basis point hike  as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
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Brokers Report: MRCB's Outperform maintained, top pick in the Malaysian property sector

Retain outperform with target price (TP) of RM1.85




Macquarie Equities Research (MQ Research) released a report on Malaysian Resources Corporation Berhad (MRCB) following the company’s third quarter result (3Q16). MQ Research maintains Outperform on MRCB and considers MRCB as its top pick in the Malaysian property sector as well as in the ASEAN Emerging leaders.


Event

  • MRCB reported its 3Q16 results on 30 November 2016.
  • MRCB's cumulative 9M16 rep. PAT registered at RM79mn (-74% y/y); this is 67% of Macquarie's FY16E estimates and 72% of consensus FY16E forecasts. On the quarterly results, 3Q16 rep. PAT jumped 564% y/y to RM29mn due to the rise in revenue by 47% y/y to RM551mn. Earnings were weaker in 9M16 due to the RM279mn gain recorded from MRCB's asset disposal program in 9M15.

 

Impact

  • Property division to lift earnings in 4Q16. MRCB's shareholders approved the resolution to dispose the Menara Shell at RM640mn, during an extraordinary general meeting (EGM), which took place today. MRCB expects the disposal to bring RM89mn gain for MRCB in FY16E. Menara Shell will be sold to MRCB’s real estate investment trust (REIT) arm – MRCB-Quill REIT, paid in cash and REIT units. Recall that MRCB has also agreed to sell its land plot in the KLCC vicinity called The Grid to MRT Corp in a deal worth RM180mn. The land disposal is estimated to bring after-tax gain of RM38.1mn to MRCB. These disposals should lift MRCB’s consolidated earnings in 4Q16.
  • Property division exceeded MRCB’s FY16E sales target. In light of the proposed sale of Menara Shell, MRCB’s YTD property sales registered at RM1.17bn, exceeding its RM1bn FY16E sales target. Its unbilled sales stood at RM1.4bn and MRCB is planning to launch two more property projects in December 2016 – Kalista in Bukit Rahman Putra and Sentral Suites, carrying a combined GDV of RM1.35bn. Based on the soft launches of these projects, Kalista and Sentral Suites have had 50% and 45% bookings, respectively.
  • Construction division showed signs of life with margin expansion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin for the construction division expanded to 4.8% in 3Q16 vs. 1.8% in 2Q16 as MRCB begins to recognize the value of its orderbook, which currently stands at RM5.2bn. Year—to-date (YTD) earnings for this division were weaker due to the loss recognition from the LRT2 project. Going forward MQ Research expect margins to expand further as MRCB moves on from the loss-making legacy projects inherited from the previous management.

 

Earnings and target price revision

  • No change.

 

Price catalyst

  • 12-month price target: RM1.85 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.
  • Catalyst: new order wins for MRCB’s construction and engineering division

 

Action and recommendation

MRCB is MQ Research’s top pick in the Malaysian property sector, as MQ Research believe its transport-oriented development (TOD) projects will bode well with the completion of the upcoming mega infra projects in Malaysia, and hence will generate strong take-up rates. MRCB is also one of MQ Research’s top picks in the ASEAN Emerging Leaders – Macquarie's top picks in the ASEAN small mid cap (SMID) coverage. Maintain Outperform.



Source: Macquarie Equities Research - 02 December 2016
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