The Bank of Russia unexpectedly maintained its key interest rate at a record-high 21% , defying analysts’ expectations of another significant hike as inflation remains stubbornly elevated. The decision marks a shift toward a more measured approach in balancing economic growth and price stability. Key Details Inflation Concerns: Annual inflation climbed to 8.9% in November, well above the central bank’s 4% target , with inflation expectations reaching 13.9% in December. Policy Rationale: The central bank cited the significant tightening of monetary conditions after October’s 200-basis point hike as sufficient to resume disinflationary processes. Governor Elvira Nabiullina emphasized avoiding both economic overheating and severe slowdowns. Economic Overheating: Elevated government spending on the war in Ukraine and social programs, coupled with labor shortages and rising wages, have fueled strong domestic demand, exacerbating price pressures...
Re-initiate coverage with BUY call and target price
of RM6.12
 |
| Top Glove |
Top Glove Corporation Berhad (TOPG), the world’s largest
rubber glove manufacturer is principally engaged in the manufacturing of
multi-variety rubber examination gloves including medical and non-medical
gloves. Under Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai stewardship, TOPG which was founded in
1991 and based in Klang Selangor, started with initial 3 production lines under
a single factory. Today, TOPG has expanded into 484 production lines housed in
27 factories with 45 billion gloves capacity per annum, commanding 25% of
global market share, spanning over 195 countries. We reinitiate coverage on
TOPG with BUY call and target price of RM6.12 based on 20% discount to a 3-year
average PER, with resultant PER of 15x, pegged to FY17 EPS of 40.5 sen.
Investment Highlights:
i. Export of Rubber
Glove Seen Double-digit Growth.
The world’s export of rubber gloves in 1Q
2015 has increased to 13.5 billion pieces, registering +20% y-o-y growth from
11.3 billion in 1Q 2014. >90% of the increment was attributed by medical
gloves including examination, surgical and high risk gloves. Equipped with
world’s largest production capacity in medical glove manufacturing, Top Glove
is regarded as one of the biggest beneficiaries to the robust growth in the
export of rubber gloves.
ii. Bigger Chip
in Nitrile Glove Segment.
We expect TOPG’s synthetic rubber (SR) glove
production mix to increase to 32%, 36%, 40% of total glove production in
FY16/17/18 or 11/15/17 billion pieces/annum respectively, in line with the
demand shift from natural rubber (NR) gloves to SR gloves shown in Chart 3. To
achieve higher economies of scale, Top Glove the already largest rubber glove
maker in the world, is still rolling out expansion plans to boost its NR
capacity (+1.4 billion) and SR capacity (+6.4 billion) by 4Q CY16 and 2Q CY17,
respectively. This will see a total of 26 glove factories equipped with 540
production lines with production capacity of 52.4 billion gloves per annum.
Comprehensive variety of glove products enables TOPG to tap into several
industries other than healthcare namely semiconductor, aerospace, automotive,
beauty, etc. The company is aiming to lift its global market share from 25% to
30% by 2020.
iii. Sound Earnings Record.
TOPG has been consistently recording >RM 2 billion turnover in the last
5 years amid speculation of oversupply issue. Its PBT has been above RM200
million mark since 2012 and touched a new record high of RM364 million in 2015,
translating into PBT margin of 14.5%. Consistently high profitability over the
years has resulted in substantial RM1.2 billion retained earnings (pre-1:1
bonus issue in January 2016) boosting the group’s war chest. TOPG has been
sitting on net cash position since FY09, with RM180 million cash and marketable
securities ready by FY15.
iv. Selected
Risk Factors.
1) rebound in latex price;
2) strengthening in crude oil
prices;
3) increasing competitive landscape ;
4) volatility in forex & raw
material prices.
v. Earnings Outlook.
Moving forward, we expect full contribution of F27 (Lukut Plant with 2 billion
capacity ; SR-centric) and F6 (Phuket plant with 1.4 billion capacity ;
NR-centric) to be reflected in FY17 while F30 (Klang Plant with 4.4 billion
capacity ; SR-centric) is expected to contribute positively and progressively
into FY17-FY18 earnings. Provided no further delays in plant construction and
facility installation and consistently strong demand of gloves, F30 should be
fully commissioned by 4Q FY17, ramping up total capacity to 52.4 billion p.a.
with 520 production lines. We project TOPG to post FY15-18 net profit CAGR of
21.3% driven by its ongoing expansion plans, converting into EPS of 64 sen, 81
sen and 80 sen in FY16/17/18, respectively.
vi. Valuations & Recommendation. We expect the ASP of SR gloves
will trend lower in the coming future as most major glove players have been
ramping up its production capacity to fetch demand for SR segment. However, we
are not perturbed by potential threat to margin erosion due to lower ASP as
TOPG has the world’s largest production capacity that generates substantial
economies of scale, translating into strength to weather the storm of price
competition. We reinitiate coverage on Top Glove with a target price of RM6.12,
based on the 20% discount to TOPG’s 3-year PER with a resultant PER of 15x
pegged to FY17 EPS of 40.5 sen, suggesting a BUY recommendation, equating to
approximately 25% upside potential from the current price of RM4.91.
Source: M&A Securities Research, 09 March 2016
Source: M&A Securities Research, 09 March 2016
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