The global economy is projected to see steady growth in the coming years, driven by easing inflation, job creation, and interest rate cuts, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). However, the OECD cautioned that rising protectionism could disrupt global trade and jeopardize this recovery.
Global Growth Forecast
- 2024 Growth: 3.2%
- 2025 Growth: 3.3%
- 2026 Growth: 3.3%
These forecasts remain consistent with the OECD’s September outlook, marking a positive trajectory underpinned by rebounding global trade, which is expected to grow 3.6% in 2025.
Risks from Protectionism
The OECD warned that rising trade tensions, spurred by measures restricting imports and heightened tariff threats, could:
- Disrupt global supply chains.
- Push up consumer prices.
- Weaken economic growth.
This warning comes amid renewed calls for tariff hikes from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, raising concerns over escalating trade barriers.
Regional Growth Projections
United States:
- 2024: 2.8% growth.
- 2025: 2.4%, moderating further to 2.1% in 2026.
- Cooling labor markets are expected to temper consumer spending.
China:
- Growth to ease from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
- Despite fiscal and monetary easing, high savings are curbing consumer spending.
Eurozone:
- Growth set to improve, rising from 0.8% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
- Investment gains and tight labor markets are key drivers.
United Kingdom:
- Growth expected to climb from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.7% in 2025, before easing to 1.3% in 2026.
- Real income growth and increased public spending are offsetting higher taxes.
Japan:
- Projected to rebound from a 0.3% contraction in 2024 to 1.5% growth in 2025, before slowing to 0.6% in 2026.
- Growth supported by economic stimulus measures.
Policy Recommendations
- Monetary Policy: Most central banks are expected to carefully ease monetary policies as inflation subsides, except for Japan, which is maintaining its stance.
- Fiscal Policy: Governments need to take decisive measures to stabilize public debt, with many facing strained finances.
Conclusion
While the global economy is on track for steady growth, the OECD emphasized the importance of addressing protectionist policies to sustain momentum. Collaborative international trade efforts, alongside sound fiscal and monetary strategies, are critical to navigating these challenges.
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