US import prices fell by the most in eight months in August, driven by lower costs across a wide range of goods. This decline suggests that domestic inflation is likely to continue to subside in the coming months.
According to the Labor Department report released on Friday, the decrease in import prices aligns with recent data showing only mild increases in producer and consumer prices in August, despite persistent underlying inflation. With price pressures easing, the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus to the labor market, which has slowed significantly from last year’s robust growth.
"The inflation flare-up early in the year is no longer evident in the prices of imported goods coming into the country, which is another reason to believe that the balance of risks has shifted for Fed officials back to downside risks for the economy and labor market," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
Import prices fell 0.3% in August, marking the largest decline since December 2023, after an unrevised 0.1% increase in July. Economists had anticipated a 0.2% drop. Over the past 12 months, import prices have risen 0.8%, down from a 1.7% increase in July.
The Federal Reserve is expected to begin its much-anticipated easing cycle next Wednesday, with a 25-basis-point interest rate cut almost certain. Expectations for a larger cut have been tempered by recent labor market stability and persistent core inflation.
Prices for imported fuels fell 3.0% in August, with petroleum products decreasing 3.2%, following a 1.1% increase in July. Food prices dipped 0.1% after a 1.5% surge in the previous month. Excluding fuels and food, core import prices slipped 0.1%.
The strength of the US dollar against the currencies of major trading partners has helped keep imported inflation under control. Core import prices rose 1.1% year-on-year in August.
Prices of imported industrial supplies and materials, excluding petroleum, fell 0.4%, while imported capital goods prices edged up 0.1%, supported by increases in nonelectrical machinery. Prices for imported motor vehicles and engines remained unchanged after a 0.4% rise in July.
The cost of imported consumer goods, excluding automotives, declined for the third consecutive month, with non-manufactured consumer goods dropping 2.0%.
Prices for Chinese imports decreased 0.2% after being unchanged for five months and dropped 1.4% year-on-year in August. The cost of goods imported from Canada fell 1.4%, the largest decline since December 2023, while prices of goods from Mexico fell 0.3%. However, prices for goods imported from the European Union rebounded 0.2% after a 0.4% decline in July.
The report also revealed a 0.7% drop in export prices in August after a 0.5% rise in July. Both agricultural and nonagricultural export prices fell, with decreases in the prices of soybeans, corn, wheat, and fruit. Despite the drop, prices for consumer goods, motor vehicles, and nonagricultural foods saw gains. Export prices fell 0.7% year-on-year in August, following a 1.2% increase in July.
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