A wave of disappointing economic data from China is fueling pessimism among stock traders, who are increasingly skeptical that authorities will implement robust stimulus measures to stabilize the economy.
Data released on Saturday (Sept 14) revealed that China's factory output, consumption, and investment all slowed more than expected in August, while the jobless rate climbed to a six-month high. Additionally, home prices fell compared to the previous month.
“There is a fear that the authorities are losing control of the economy and won’t admit it,” said Gary Dugan, CEO of the Global CIO Office. “The market looks set to go to significantly lower levels in the absence of real, substantial new policies.”
Concerns about Beijing's hesitance to take decisive action have weighed heavily on the nation's stock markets. The CSI 300 Index fell to its lowest point since early 2019 last week, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong has dropped 13% since its May peak.
With mainland financial markets closed until Wednesday due to holidays, any reaction in Chinese stocks on Monday will focus on Hong Kong.
Chinese authorities have been reluctant to introduce large-scale fiscal stimulus since their efforts to deflate a property bubble, which contributed to the current economic downturn. Recent support measures, such as interest-rate cuts and state funds' purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have failed to significantly revive market sentiment.
This has led to a major outflow from Chinese equity markets, with approximately $6.8 trillion (RM29.25 trillion) wiped out from the combined market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since their peak in 2021.
Saturday’s economic data suggests that the main driver of the Chinese economy this year — exports and government support — is losing momentum. Industrial output expanded at a slower rate than economists had forecast, marking the fourth consecutive month of weaker growth, the longest such stretch since September 2021.
“The data probably makes the markets feel like authorities are asleep at the wheel,” noted Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.Com Inc in Melbourne.
Last week, the People’s Bank of China indicated it would intensify its efforts against deflation and prepare new policies to support the economy, following weak credit data that showed private sector confidence remained low despite earlier interest-rate cuts.
However, according to veteran emerging-market investor Mark Mobius, stimulus alone may not be sufficient in the current business environment. "The real problem is that the entrepreneurial impetus is missing, with many businessmen unwilling to invest," he said. "It will be necessary for the government to loosen up on private enterprise restrictions and regulations to stimulate the private sector and help grow the economy."
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