The US dollar gave up some of its overnight gains on Wednesday, while Asian stocks showed mixed performance as traders weighed the likelihood of a significant Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut later in the day.
The dollar fell sharply against the yen, giving back about a third of its rally from Tuesday, which was initially driven by unexpectedly strong US retail sales data that weakened the case for an aggressive Fed rate cut. The euro also recovered, regaining nearly all of its previous day's losses.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The probability of the Fed initiating its easing cycle with a substantial 50 basis point (bps) rate cut fluctuated throughout the Asian trading session. It fell to 63% early in the day, down from 67% on Tuesday morning, according to LSEG data. However, by 0137 GMT, the odds had risen again to 65%.
Market Performance in Asia
Japanese stocks were the standout performers in the region, with the Nikkei stock average climbing 0.72% to erase Tuesday's 1% decline, driven largely by movements in the dollar-yen exchange rate.
Mainland Chinese blue chips opened flat following a holiday-extended weekend, while Taiwan returned from a day off to trade 0.35% lower. Australia's benchmark index showed little change.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.05%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong and South Korea markets remained closed due to holidays.
Wall Street closed nearly unchanged on Tuesday, failing to maintain the early momentum that pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to record intraday highs. S&P 500 futures indicated a slight increase of 0.08% on Wednesday.
Market Sentiment and Currency Movements
"The US price action conveys the significant inflection point markets confront," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. "If the Fed nails it at this meeting, the bull market could charge on. If it doesn't, then it could signal a high water mark in this cycle."
The dollar dropped 0.55% to ¥141.60, following a 1.26% surge overnight. The euro edged up 0.12% to US$1.1128. The dollar index eased by 0.07% to 100.84 after a 0.3% rally on Tuesday.
Short-term US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the two-year note adding another basis point to reach 3.6028% during Asian trading hours.
Commodities and Global Tensions
Gold rebounded slightly, rising 0.15% to US$2,573.18 per ounce, after pulling back from an all-time high in the previous session.
Crude oil prices remained steady after gaining about US$1 per barrel on Wednesday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Hezbollah vowed retaliation against Israel after a series of explosions in Lebanon on Tuesday resulted in numerous casualties.
Meanwhile, in Libya, the UN's mission reported that factions had not reached a final agreement in ongoing talks aimed at resolving the central bank crisis, which has severely impacted oil output and exports.
US crude futures eased by 13 cents to US$71.06 per barrel, while Brent crude futures edged down 14 cents to US$73.56 per barrel.
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