Thailand's baht is experiencing its most significant rally since the Asian financial crisis, surging 10% against the US dollar since the end of June. This sharp rise threatens to disrupt the recovery of Thailand's tourism and export industries, which are key drivers of the economy.
The rally, largely driven by a US dollar slump ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, has sparked concerns among industry leaders. Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan and Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul have called on the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to temper the currency's strength and reduce its volatility. With the baht appreciating more than the currencies of Thailand’s trade partners, the Federation of Thai Industries fears buyers may start looking for cheaper alternatives, which could harm exports.
The Tourism Council of Thailand has also expressed concern that the strong baht could begin to impact foreign tourist spending on shopping and hotels, though tourist arrivals remain robust for now. Thailand's tourism sector has been a bright spot, with the country on track to meet its target of 36.7 million tourists this year, generating two trillion baht in revenue.
However, the rising baht adds another challenge for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has committed to stimulating the economy and reducing the cost of living. With exports accounting for almost 60% of GDP, the baht’s surge is compounding issues for exporters already dealing with high production costs and competition from cheap imports.
The baht’s rapid appreciation, coupled with soaring volatility—with a 9.14% three-month implied volatility against the dollar—makes it difficult for exporters to plan effectively. Kriengkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, emphasized the need for a stable currency to help businesses manage their high financing costs.
The BOT has signaled that it will take steps to ensure the baht’s fluctuations don’t excessively harm local businesses. Foreign capital inflows of about US$2.6 billion into Thai bonds and stocks this quarter have contributed to the baht’s rise. The currency’s strength is expected to be a factor in the BOT’s Oct 16 policy meeting, with some analysts suggesting that a rate cut could be on the table by the end of the year.
Although the baht’s rise hasn’t yet significantly impacted tourist arrivals, the psychological effect of a stronger currency could deter future spending, particularly on shopping and accommodation, according to tourism industry experts.
Comments
Post a Comment