The US dollar is hovering near its lowest levels of the year, driven by market wagers on a potentially significant interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which could mark the beginning of a new easing cycle. As expectations build for a 50 basis points cut, the dollar's position is increasingly precarious.
The euro remained close to its yearly high, trading around US$1.1132, while the yen eased to 140.71 after briefly strengthening on Monday. The yen, which has fallen the most this year, may see a rally if the Fed takes a dovish turn.
Market speculation intensified after reports suggested a more aggressive rate cut, with Fed funds futures now indicating a 65% probability of a 50 basis point cut, up from 30% just a week ago. Jane Foley, a senior forex strategist at Rabobank, noted that any sign of weakness in upcoming US economic data would likely reinforce these expectations.
Macquarie strategists commented that, regardless of whether the Fed opts for a 25 or 50 basis point cut, the central bank's tone is expected to be "dovish," potentially weakening the dollar further, particularly against the yen. The contrast between the Fed's outlook and that of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which may hint at future interest rate hikes, is likely to remain stark.
Meanwhile, sterling has led gains against the dollar, rising 3.9% this year, buoyed by Britain's resilient economy and persistent inflation. The pound broke above US$1.32 on Monday and is expected to maintain strength as the Bank of England meets later this week.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars also saw gains, trading at US$0.67555 and US$0.6198 respectively, as traders focused on the Fed’s upcoming decisions rather than China’s economic challenges.
The US dollar index held steady at 100.7, close t
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