KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 8 (Bernama) -- Bursa Malaysia closed almost flat on Tuesday as buying interest rotated away from index heavyweights towards smaller-cap construction stocks, with sentiment affected by geopolitical uncertainty, said an analyst. At 5 pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) eased 0.39 of a point to 1,714.40 from Monday’s close of 1,714.79. The benchmark index opened 1.65 points lower at 1,713.14 and moved between 1,710.44 and 1,714.50 throughout the trading session. The broader market was almost evenly balanced, with decliners leading gainers 548 to 546, while 598 counters were unchanged, 1,107 were untraded and 25 were suspended. Turnover expanded to 4.13 billion units valued at RM3.14 billion from 3.60 billion units valued at RM2.45 billion on Monday.
The rapid expansion of the $1.7 trillion private credit industry, which more than doubled in size since 2019, is now encountering significant headwinds. As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the appeal of floating-rate debt is diminishing, posing a major challenge to this fast-growing sector.
Lower benchmark rates make fixed-income investments more attractive to investors than variable-rate private credit. This shift is expected to intensify as the Fed projects further easing later this year, potentially slowing private credit’s growth trajectory.
Adding to the industry’s woes are increased concerns from regulators, who worry about the spillover impact of any crisis in private credit on banks, which provide loans to private credit managers. Moreover, institutional capital allocations to private credit are stagnating, while falling oil prices could hamper Middle Eastern investments. New US regulations set to take effect in 2026 may also deter insurers from investing in this asset class, further tightening capital flows.
Another looming threat is a potential US recession, which could reduce deal-making activity and increase the risk of borrower defaults. Currently, private credit defaults stand at around 3-5%, driven by covenant breaches and loan modifications, according to Patrick Dennis, co-deputy managing partner at Davidson Kempner Capital Management.
Despite challenges, some positives remain. Lower interest rates could spur more deal-making, creating opportunities for capital deployment, provided the economy avoids a severe downturn. However, competition from traditional lenders seeking to reclaim buyout business adds pressure to private credit.
On the regulatory front, the Financial Stability Board and the European Central Bank are scrutinizing private markets, particularly the links between private credit firms and financial institutions. In Japan, the Bank of Japan is monitoring increasing exposures to global private credit funds.
In the US, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) will soon implement rules allowing regulators to assign stricter ratings to bonds and securities held by insurers, which could curb their appetite for private credit investments.
Any retreat by insurers, who have doubled their private credit allocations to 4% since 2019, would hinder growth in the sector. Insurance capital has been a significant driver of the market, but increased defaults in certain portfolios could lead to further regulatory intervention, potentially causing technical market disruptions.
Despite these risks, industry experts like Manish Valecha, head of client solutions at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, caution that the new rules could push insurers away from more aggressive investment structures, signaling a pivotal moment for the private credit industry.
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