The United States is set to confront a shortage of six million workers within the next decade, according to a new study by labor market data provider Lightcast. The shortfall is attributed to retirements, workforce participation declines, and a mismatch between available jobs and worker skills.
One of the primary drivers of this gap is the retirement of older workers, who were key contributors to job growth in the two decades before the pandemic. The study reveals that of the five million workers who left the workforce since 2020, four-fifths were over 55. By 2027, the number of Americans turning 65 will surpass those turning 16, signaling a significant workforce replacement challenge.
Moreover, prime-age men are increasingly absent from the labor market due to issues like substance abuse and incarceration, which have removed 4.6 million Americans from the workforce. This loss comes at a time when industries like healthcare, construction, and skilled trades are in dire need of labor.
The study also highlights that immigrants will be essential in filling these gaps, with sectors like healthcare already relying on them. 18% of healthcare workers, including one in four doctors and one in five registered nurses, come from outside the US.
While some view artificial intelligence as a potential solution, Lightcast researchers are skeptical. The study suggests that the roles most in need of workers are precisely those where AI and automation are least likely to be effective, especially in hands-on, practical jobs that are critical to the economy.
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